Originally posted at T-Rex Arms.

(two in an intermittent series of very quick thoughts about possible futures; see the other one here)

Since hip-hop has repeatedly been declared dead for at least a decade, I decided to widen the terms of debate a little and put together five variations of where hip-hop might be headed. Go with me on this, and see if you think I’m not entirely full of shit.

One. The Jazz Funeral.

In this scenario, hip-hop still exists, but its time of innovation is over; it follows the model of jazz and classical music, becoming a museum piece. A Museum of Hip-Hop is established, elevators play Three Six Mafia over the PA and hip-hop clubs cater to increasingly older patrons who dress up in throwback jerseys and expensive kicks for a night out. They yell at younger folks to be quiet so they can hear the lyrics.

The preservationist crowd of hip-hop holds sway here, so most programs of hip-hop end up sounding like what was being made from about 1987-1995; KRS-One basically turns into Wynton Marsalis, which is disturbing to some but a relief to others. To the vast majority of people, this is what becomes known as hip-hop; the left-field stuff and the pop that didn’t age well eventually survives only in the studies of academics. Despite this, the vast amount of recordings are preserved and some people finally put up money to take care of the aging musicians’ medical needs.

Two. Outta Sight Outta Mind.

Here, hip-hop dies as far as pop music is concerned. You’re now more likely to hear a country or blues song on Top 40 radio, albeit with breakbeats underneath. All those who were in it for the money scatter like cock-a-roaches and the entire culture fades back underground. The character of American hip-hop, much like its counterparts in places like Chile, Croatia, Kenya, and Palestine, becomes explicitly a music of resistance, reflecting the political consciousness of the disenfranchised.

10 years later, catching the media and the powers that be completely off-guard, a revolution emerges, started by waves of New Yorkers marching up to city hall and setting it on fire once yet another politician buys his way out of term limits. Of the old guard, Dead Prez and Immortal Technique are involved, as are Paris and the Coup, but oddly enough, Common is nowhere to be found. Under the new regime, those deemed to be traitors to the cause – Flava Flav, for example, or Soulja Boy – are executed by firing squad.

A group of programmers in the suburbs of Detroit perfect algorithms to make perfectly simulated hip-hop (seeded with pieces of Tribe Called Quest, J Dilla, DJ Quik, and Large Professor, among many others) generated entirely by robots. Some musicians, such as Danger Mouse, Dan The Automator, Diamond D, Q-Tip, Dr. Dre, and Waajeed are able to get cushy consultant positions to help improve on the algorithms. The rest end up driving cabs (word to Cappadonna).

Four. After Life.

Hip-hop just exhausts itself. After the last of its obsessive admirers die, it isn’t mourned — the general populace only remembers Flo Rida, Will.I.Am, 50 Cent, and Eminem’s last three albums. Much like Shakespeare or Beethoven, it takes centuries for the true luminaries of rap to be appreciated.

Five. Second Wind.

After more than thirty years of existence, and despite numerous op-eds, articles, and even albums trumpeting the death of hip-hop, it continues along an unexpected path. It manages to evolve and change. This new resurgence creates a music which is as radically different from the Sugar Hill Gang as a Mozart symphony is to an atonal piece by Schöenberg, but similarly can be shown to belong to the same family tree.

The current crop of radio-friendly artists are outdated seemingly overnight, and if you grew up in the Golden Age of hip-hop, well, there’s no avoiding the fact that this is your grandkids’ music, not yours. But then, you reflect, that’s probably the way it’s meant to be.

I think the roots of these futures are, to some extent, with us and happening right now (OK I admit, contrary to appearances, we don’t seem to have any actual robot MCs, but there are experimental DJ machines at MIT).

Which one of these, if any, do you think is most likely to dominate? Why? Was there an outcome you’ve thought of that I completely overlooked?

Shout it out in the comments or holler at: secretlion@trexarms.com.

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